
Via Real Estate Channel
(NEW YORK, NY) -- Things look bleak over at Tishman Speyer's 56-building, twin apartment Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village in Manhattan.
Fitch Ratings reports debt service reserves for six loans totaling $4.5 billion are likely to run out by the end of this year. A default on the loan is likely if an equity infusion or recapitalization does not take place
Please see Real Estate Channel posting, Jan. 26, 2009, "Clock Ticking on Tishman Speyer's $4.5B Loan Payments."), .
Pieces of a $3 billion pari passu (without preference or priority) Stuy Town loan are securitized in the following transactions:
-- WBCMT 2007-C30; -- COBALT 2007-C2; --ML-CFC 2007-5; -- ML-CFC 2007-6.
Fitch has downgraded these four U.S. CMBS transactions due to the continued underperformance of the Stuy Town loan and other loans in the transactions.
The outcome of the ongoing Stuy Town litigation may have future rating implications for the four transactions, notes Fitch analyst and senior director Adam Fox.
The outcome of the ongoing Stuy Town litigation may have future rating implications for the four transactions, notes Fitch analyst and senior director Adam Fox.
"Based on current performance and the uncertainty surrounding ongoing litigation, we do not expect property performance to improve sufficiently to service the securitized portion of the $4.5 billion debt before reserves are depleted', says Fox.
In addition to the securitized balance, there is an additional $1.5 billion of mezzanine debt held outside the trust.
For the year ended 2008, the servicer reported debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) on the mortgage was 0.69 times (x), as compared to the year ended 2007 DSCR of 0.55x.
For first quarter-2009 (1Q'09), the servicer reported DSCR was 0.71x. As of July 2009, approximately 60% were rent-stabilized units and 40% were market units with a vacancy rate of approximately 4.1%.
Based on first quarter financials reviewed by Fitch, cash flow generated from the property remains "significantly below what is needed to service the current outstanding debt, and the borrower continues to use debt service reserves to cover operating shortfalls," the agency says.
Capital expenditures for converting stabilized units to market rents have ceased because of a moratorium on conversion imposed by the Court of Appeals as a result of the litigation.
While this has reduced capital expenditures, the use of debt service reserves has increased because the Court also requires the borrower to separately escrow the difference between stabilized and market rents on former stabilized units, Fox says.
Previously, this difference was available for debt service. Once debt service reserves have been depleted, the borrower has the option to replenish them or cover the operating shortfalls out of pocket.
Fitch's analysis is based on updated expectations of limited unit turnover and stabilized expenses. Based on this estimate of cash flow, losses could be as high as 20% of the $3 billion A note balance.
However, although a default is expected in the near term, a lengthy workout is also expected.
While final resolution for this lawsuit may not occur for several months or years, Fitch believes the ultimate value of the properties will be, in large part, determined by the lawsuit's resolution.
Manhattan's Stuyvestant Town and Peter Cooper Village Finances Continue to Lag, Fitch Reports [Real Estate Channel]
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